November 15, 2013
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | -4 | 4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 175 | 1 312 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Rashad Evans's 4-fight experience advantage (18 vs 14 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rashad Evans for the expected result. Had Chael Sonnen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 092 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:05 | 4:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 357 | 1 521 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +77 |
Rashad Evans earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:05, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 14 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 15 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 352 | 1 506 |
| ELO Change | -101 | +101 |
Rashad Evans controlled the striking exchanges with 20 vs 3 significant strikes, 71.4% vs 21.4% accuracy. Rashad Evans capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:35 | 3:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 1 419 | 1 545 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Rashad Evans controlled Chael Sonnen on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:13 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 92 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 274 | 1 399 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +28 |
Rashad Evans demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rashad Evans capitalized on this activity level, while Chael Sonnen's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 121 | 1 251 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +18 |
Rashad Evans extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chael Sonnen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Rashad Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 067 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.