October 6, 2005
Light Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 977 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Renato Sobral's 5-fight experience advantage (6 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Renato Sobral for the expected result. Had Chael Sonnen pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:20 | 1:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 968 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +50 |
Renato Sobral earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:20, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Chael Sonnen was submitted.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 12 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 17 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 56 | 15 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 982 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Chael Sonnen controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (56 vs 15 total strikes), superior accuracy (50.0% vs 64.7%). However, since Chael Sonnen lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Renato Sobral's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:02 | 2:43 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 949 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
Renato Sobral dominated Chael Sonnen on the ground with 4 vs 0 takedowns, 2:43 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 174 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +32 |
Renato Sobral demonstrated solid activity levels with 174 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Renato Sobral capitalized on this activity level, while Chael Sonnen's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Renato Sobral extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chael Sonnen is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chael Sonnen | Renato Sobral |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

