January 18, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 013 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 004 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:25 | 2:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 055 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +78 | -45 |
Chance Rencountre earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:25, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 9 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 020 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +70 | -70 |
Chance Rencountre slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 66.7% vs 18.2% accuracy. Chance Rencountre capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:59 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 115 | 846 |
| ELO Change | +154 | -154 |
Chance Rencountre dominated Kyle Stewart on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:59 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 233 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 017 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -22 |
Chance Rencountre demonstrated standard activity with 233 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Chance Rencountre capitalized on this activity level, while Kyle Stewart's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 007 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Chance Rencountre started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kyle Stewart is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Kyle Stewart |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 004 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

