November 1, 2019
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 027 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 005 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:03 | 2:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 069 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +59 |
Lyman Good gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 68 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 83 | 134 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 955 | 1 210 |
| ELO Change | -91 | +91 |
Lyman Good dominated the striking exchanges with 73 vs 23 total strikes, 68 vs 23 significant strikes, 50.7% vs 27.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Lyman Good capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:24 | 0:10 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 090 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Lyman Good landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | 273 |
| Activity ELO | 1 033 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Lyman Good demonstrated standard activity with 273 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Lyman Good capitalized on this activity level, while Chance Rencountre's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 012 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Lyman Good started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chance Rencountre is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chance Rencountre | Lyman Good |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 005 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.