July 12, 2024
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 033 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Charles Johnson's 5-fight experience advantage (9 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Johnson for the expected result. Had Joshua Van pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 030 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:20 | 0:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 180 | 1 078 |
| ELO Change | +93 | -46 |
Charles Johnson gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 88 | 67 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 191 | 133 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 90 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 222 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +95 | -95 |
Charles Johnson controlled the striking exchanges with 88 vs 67 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Charles Johnson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:34 | 0:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 060 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -66 |
Charles Johnson landed 1 knockdown followed by 1 ground strike. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 206 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -19 |
Charles Johnson demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Charles Johnson capitalized on this activity level, while Joshua Van's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 051 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -24 |
Charles Johnson extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Joshua Van is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Joshua Van |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 030 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.