February 24, 2023
Catch Weight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Ode Osbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 012 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Ode Osbourne's 3-fight experience advantage (7 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Ode Osbourne for the expected result. Had Charles Johnson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Ode Osbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 998 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Ode Osbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 083 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Ode Osbourne receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Ode Osbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 60 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 127 | 154 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 74 | 50 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 075 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Charles Johnson controlled the striking through superior volume (74 vs 50 total strikes), significant strike advantage (60 vs 48), superior accuracy (47.2% vs 31.2%). However, since Charles Johnson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Ode Osbourne's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Ode Osbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:18 | 2:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 966 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -52 | +52 |
Ode Osbourne edged out Charles Johnson on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 2:53 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Ode Osbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 42 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 1 099 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +33 |
Ode Osbourne demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ode Osbourne capitalized on this activity level, while Charles Johnson's 42-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Ode Osbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +25 |
Ode Osbourne started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Charles Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Ode Osbourne |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | N/A | N/A |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 998 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.