November 17, 2023
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 909 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Rafael Estevam overcame a 5-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Charles Johnson.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 995 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Rafael Estevam earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 72 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 109 | 43 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 116 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 022 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Charles Johnson controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (116 vs 35 total strikes), significant strike advantage (72 vs 18), superior accuracy (66.1% vs 41.9%). However, since Charles Johnson lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rafael Estevam's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 22 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 9:23 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 840 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -54 | +54 |
Rafael Estevam controlled Charles Johnson on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 9:23 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 050 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Rafael Estevam demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Rafael Estevam capitalized on this activity level, while Charles Johnson's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 967 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Rafael Estevam started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Charles Johnson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles Johnson | Rafael Estevam |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 959 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.