November 10, 2006
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles McCarthy | Gideon Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 003 | 920 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Charles McCarthy | Gideon Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 000 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles McCarthy | Gideon Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:43 | 4:43 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 034 | 913 |
| ELO Change | +66 | -40 |
Charles McCarthy earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:43, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Charles McCarthy | Gideon Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 913 | 829 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Gideon Ray controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (9 vs 2), superior accuracy (34.6% vs 16.7%). However, since Gideon Ray lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Charles McCarthy's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles McCarthy | Gideon Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:38 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 002 | 850 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Charles McCarthy controlled Gideon Ray on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:38 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Charles McCarthy | Gideon Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 526 | 463 |
| Activity ELO | 998 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -20 |
Charles McCarthy demonstrated extended layoff with 526 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Charles McCarthy capitalized on this activity level, while Gideon Ray's 463-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles McCarthy | Gideon Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 002 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Charles McCarthy started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Gideon Ray is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles McCarthy | Gideon Ray |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 000 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.