September 21, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Christos Giagos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 17 | -17 |
| Experience ELO | 1 188 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Charles Oliveira's 17-fight experience advantage (21 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Oliveira for the expected result. Had Christos Giagos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Christos Giagos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 094 | 968 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Christos Giagos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:22 | 3:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 364 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -10 |
Charles Oliveira earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:22, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Christos Giagos was submitted.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Christos Giagos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 18 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 60 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 181 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Charles Oliveira edged the striking exchanges with 28 vs 18 significant strikes, 46.7% vs 22.5% accuracy. Charles Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Christos Giagos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:21 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 286 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Charles Oliveira dominated Christos Giagos on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:21 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Christos Giagos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 105 | 1 204 |
| Activity ELO | 1 269 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -8 |
Charles Oliveira demonstrated solid activity levels with 105 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Charles Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Christos Giagos's 1204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Christos Giagos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 132 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -13 |
Charles Oliveira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Christos Giagos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Christos Giagos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 088 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.