December 10, 2021
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 29 | 27 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 408 | 1 381 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Charles Oliveira's 2-fight experience advantage (29 vs 27 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Oliveira for the expected result. Had Dustin Poirier pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 311 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -23 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Charles Oliveira captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:02 | 1:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 703 | 1 653 |
| ELO Change | +77 | -51 |
Charles Oliveira earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:02, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Dustin Poirier was submitted.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 73 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 131 | 94 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 98 | 69 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 522 | 1 596 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Charles Oliveira controlled the striking exchanges with 98 vs 69 total strikes, 73 vs 58 significant strikes. Charles Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:41 | 0:35 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 619 | 1 366 |
| ELO Change | +74 | -74 |
Charles Oliveira dominated Dustin Poirier on the ground with 5:41 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 211 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 518 | 1 437 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -19 |
Charles Oliveira demonstrated standard activity with 211 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Charles Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Dustin Poirier's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 10 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 511 | 1 328 |
| ELO Change | +83 | -16 |
Charles Oliveira extended his incredible 10-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Dustin Poirier is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 239 | 1 243 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.