June 28, 2025
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 35 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 26 | -26 |
| Experience ELO | 1 371 | 1 526 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +73 |
Ilia Topuria overcame a 26-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 35 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Charles Oliveira.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 269 | 1 379 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +57 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Ilia Topuria captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:27 | 2:27 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 685 | 1 794 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +107 |
Ilia Topuria earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:27, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 29 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 24 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 460 | 1 726 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +70 |
Ilia Topuria controlled the striking exchanges with 21 vs 9 significant strikes, 72.4% vs 56.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Ilia Topuria capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 1:01 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 443 | 1 581 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Ilia Topuria landed 1 knockdown followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 224 | 245 |
| Activity ELO | 1 463 | 1 352 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +39 |
Ilia Topuria demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Ilia Topuria capitalized on this activity level, while Charles Oliveira's 224-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 9 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 472 | 1 529 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +97 |
Ilia Topuria continued building serious momentum with a 9-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Charles Oliveira's now at 0.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Ilia Topuria |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | Yes |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 207 | 1 541 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +358 |
HISTORIC DOUBLE CHAMPION ACHIEVEMENT! Ilia Topuria etched his name into MMA legend by capturing the Lightweight title while already having held another belt. This ultra-rare multi-division champion status triggered a massive multiplier, delivering a colossal 358-point bonus - one of the highest individual rewards in the entire algorithm!
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.