October 21, 2022
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 31 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 18 | -18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 400 | 1 447 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +84 |
Islam Makhachev overcame a 18-fight experience disadvantage (13 vs 31 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Charles Oliveira.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 294 | 1 281 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +85 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Islam Makhachev captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:16 | 3:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 691 | 1 661 |
| ELO Change | -63 | +98 |
Islam Makhachev earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:16, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Charles Oliveira was submitted.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 19 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 39 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 489 | 1 562 |
| ELO Change | -98 | +98 |
Islam Makhachev controlled the striking exchanges with 72 vs 25 total strikes, 30 vs 19 significant strikes, 73.2% vs 48.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Islam Makhachev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:42 | 5:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 522 | 1 707 |
| ELO Change | -122 | +122 |
Islam Makhachev dominated Charles Oliveira on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:05 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 238 |
| Activity ELO | 1 501 | 1 397 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +38 |
Islam Makhachev demonstrated standard activity with 238 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Islam Makhachev capitalized on this activity level, while Charles Oliveira's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 11 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 515 | 1 569 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +187 |
Islam Makhachev extended his incredible 11-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Charles Oliveira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 229 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.