November 15, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 25 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 19 | -19 |
| Experience ELO | 1 291 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
Charles Oliveira's 19-fight experience advantage (25 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Oliveira for the expected result. Had Jared Gordon pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 167 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:26 | 1:26 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 520 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -6 |
Charles Oliveira earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:26, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 18 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 352 | 975 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Charles Oliveira controlled the striking exchanges with 62.5% vs 38.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Charles Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 389 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 183 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 429 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -4 |
Charles Oliveira demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Charles Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Jared Gordon's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 6 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 248 | 1 016 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -10 |
Charles Oliveira continued building serious momentum with a 6-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Jared Gordon's now at 0.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Jared Gordon |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 162 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -13 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.