May 6, 2022
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 30 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 20 | -20 |
| Experience ELO | 1 438 | 1 362 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Charles Oliveira's 20-fight experience advantage (30 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Oliveira for the expected result. Had Justin Gaethje pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 322 | 1 110 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:22 | 3:22 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 754 | 1 579 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -31 |
Charles Oliveira earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:22, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 47 | 33 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 33 | 21 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 587 | 1 463 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -65 |
Charles Oliveira controlled the striking exchanges with 30 vs 21 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Charles Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:39 | 0:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 644 | 1 245 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Charles Oliveira dominated Justin Gaethje on the ground with 0:39 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 532 | 1 225 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -7 |
Charles Oliveira demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Charles Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Gaethje's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 11 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 545 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -5 |
Charles Oliveira extended his incredible 11-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Justin Gaethje is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 253 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.