March 13, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 26 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 318 | 1 209 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Charles Oliveira's 9-fight experience advantage (26 vs 17 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Oliveira for the expected result. Had Kevin Lee pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 186 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:28 | 0:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 571 | 1 420 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -34 |
Charles Oliveira earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 0:28, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Kevin Lee was submitted.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 43 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 65 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 61 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 376 | 1 371 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Kevin Lee controlled the striking through superior accuracy (51.2% vs 66.2%). However, since Kevin Lee lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Charles Oliveira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 6:30 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 10 |
| Ground ELO | 1 435 | 1 377 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Charles Oliveira edged out Kevin Lee on the ground with 0 takedowns, 6 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 469 | 1 326 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -16 |
Charles Oliveira demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Charles Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Lee's 133-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 7 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 300 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -18 |
Charles Oliveira continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Kevin Lee's now at 0.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Kevin Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 181 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.