May 14, 2021
UFC Lightweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 28 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 26 | -26 |
| Experience ELO | 1 373 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Charles Oliveira's 26-fight experience advantage (28 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Oliveira for the expected result. Had Michael Chandler pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 243 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -11 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Charles Oliveira captured the UFC Lightweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 0:19 | 0:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 626 | 1 170 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -6 |
Charles Oliveira gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 24 | 30 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 32 | 55 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 481 | 1 146 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -46 |
Charles Oliveira dominated the striking exchanges with 24 vs 30 significant strikes, 75.0% vs 54.5% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Charles Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:42 | 2:27 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 8 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 1 545 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | +4 | -4 |
Charles Oliveira landed 2 knockdowns followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 495 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -3 |
Charles Oliveira demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Charles Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Chandler's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 9 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 428 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -4 |
Charles Oliveira continued building serious momentum with a 9-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Michael Chandler's now at 0.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 215 | 1 017 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.