November 16, 2024
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 34 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 28 | -28 |
| Experience ELO | 1 398 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Charles Oliveira's 28-fight experience advantage (34 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Oliveira for the expected result. Had Michael Chandler pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 288 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 5 | 5 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 733 | 1 295 |
| ELO Change | +7 | -7 |
Charles Oliveira earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 88 | 84 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 122 | 113 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 117 | 150 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 530 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | +8 | -8 |
Michael Chandler controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (150 vs 117 total strikes). However, since Michael Chandler lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Charles Oliveira's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 14:52 | 1:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 18 | 24 |
| Ground ELO | 1 490 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Charles Oliveira controlled Michael Chandler on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 14:52 of control time, 18 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 218 | 736 |
| Activity ELO | 1 494 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | +4 | -3 |
Charles Oliveira demonstrated standard activity with 218 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Charles Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Michael Chandler's 736-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 497 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +3 | -3 |
Charles Oliveira started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Michael Chandler is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Michael Chandler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 231 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.