December 11, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 27 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 358 | 1 370 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Charles Oliveira's 9-fight experience advantage (27 vs 18 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Oliveira for the expected result. Had Tony Ferguson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 210 | 1 204 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 613 | 1 532 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Charles Oliveira earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 19 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 86 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 435 | 1 402 |
| ELO Change | +59 | -59 |
Charles Oliveira dominated the striking exchanges with 86 vs 26 total strikes, 41 vs 19 significant strikes, 65.1% vs 45.2% accuracy. Charles Oliveira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 11:39 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 24 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 541 | 1 395 |
| ELO Change | +106 | -106 |
Charles Oliveira dominated Tony Ferguson on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 11:39 of control time, 24 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 273 | 218 |
| Activity ELO | 1 490 | 1 450 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Charles Oliveira demonstrated standard activity with 273 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Charles Oliveira capitalized on this activity level, while Tony Ferguson's 218-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 8 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 411 | 1 482 |
| ELO Change | +111 | -33 |
Charles Oliveira continued building serious momentum with a 8-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Tony Ferguson's now at 0.
| Metric | Charles Oliveira | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 204 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.