June 25, 2021
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 034 | 959 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Charles Rosa's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Rosa for the expected result. Had Justin Jaynes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 010 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 049 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Charles Rosa receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 51 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 182 | 92 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 114 | 51 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 933 | 885 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Charles Rosa dominated the striking exchanges with 114 vs 51 total strikes, 51 vs 44 significant strikes, 28.0% vs 47.8% accuracy. Charles Rosa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:37 | 2:53 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 984 | 843 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Charles Rosa controlled Justin Jaynes on the ground with 2 takedowns, 3:37 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 131 | 953 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -13 |
Charles Rosa demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Charles Rosa capitalized on this activity level, while Justin Jaynes's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Charles Rosa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Justin Jaynes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Justin Jaynes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 010 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.