June 12, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Kevin Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 038 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Charles Rosa's 3-fight experience advantage (8 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Charles Rosa for the expected result. Had Kevin Aguilar pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Kevin Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 013 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Kevin Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 083 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Charles Rosa receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Kevin Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 69 | 53 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 173 | 135 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 69 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 945 | 888 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Charles Rosa controlled the striking exchanges with 69 vs 53 significant strikes. Charles Rosa capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Kevin Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 005 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Kevin Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 35 | 112 |
| Activity ELO | 1 133 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +110 | -22 |
Charles Rosa demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 35 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Charles Rosa capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Aguilar's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Kevin Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 024 | 992 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Charles Rosa started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Aguilar is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | Kevin Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 013 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.