January 14, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charles Rosa | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 964 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +56 |
TJ Brown overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (4 vs 12 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Charles Rosa.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 966 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 952 | 980 |
| ELO Change | -51 | +51 |
TJ Brown earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 58 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 107 | 99 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 88 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 887 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
TJ Brown edged the striking exchanges with 58 vs 46 significant strikes, 58.6% vs 43.0% accuracy. TJ Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:42 | 7:39 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 811 | 994 |
| ELO Change | -72 | +72 |
TJ Brown controlled Charles Rosa on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 7:39 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 99 | 260 |
| Activity ELO | 1 074 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +35 |
TJ Brown demonstrated standard activity with 260 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, TJ Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Charles Rosa's 99-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 978 | 1 009 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +26 |
TJ Brown extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Charles Rosa is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charles Rosa | TJ Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 966 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.