Charlie Campbell vs Tom Nolan

September 27, 2025

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1044
(-34)
Charlie Campbell
Winner: Tom Nolan
Submission
Round 1 • 4:08

C-ELO Evolution

Charlie Campbell-34
Tom Nolan+40
1094
(+40)
Tom Nolan

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Charlie Campbell: -34Tom Nolan: +34

Performance Statistics

MetricCharlie CampbellTom Nolan
Total UFC Fights35
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO1 0591 098
ELO Change-34+34
💡

What Happened

Tom Nolan's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tom Nolan for the expected result. Had Charlie Campbell pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Charlie Campbell: -21Tom Nolan: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricCharlie CampbellTom Nolan
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0201 059
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Charlie Campbell: -42Tom Nolan: +70

Performance Statistics

MetricCharlie CampbellTom Nolan
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:084:08
Win Type ELO1 0851 195
ELO Change-42+70
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What Happened

Tom Nolan earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:08, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Charlie Campbell: -53Tom Nolan: +53

Performance Statistics

MetricCharlie CampbellTom Nolan
Significant Strikes Landed1526
Significant Strikes Attempted4261
Total Strikes Landed1533
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0801 056
ELO Change-53+53
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What Happened

Tom Nolan edged the striking exchanges with 26 vs 15 significant strikes. Tom Nolan capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Charlie Campbell: -68Tom Nolan: +68

Performance Statistics

MetricCharlie CampbellTom Nolan
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted11
Ground Control Time0:180:34
Ground Strikes Landed10
Ground ELO1 0281 083
ELO Change-68+68
💡

What Happened

Tom Nolan controlled Charlie Campbell on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:34 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Charlie Campbell: -18Tom Nolan: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricCharlie CampbellTom Nolan
Days Since Last Fight540231
Activity ELO1 0311 123
ELO Change-18+22
💡

What Happened

Tom Nolan demonstrated standard activity with 231 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tom Nolan capitalized on this activity level, while Charlie Campbell's 540-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Charlie Campbell: -21Tom Nolan: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricCharlie CampbellTom Nolan
Win Streak04
Win Streak ELO1 0261 078
ELO Change-21+29
💡

What Happened

Tom Nolan extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Charlie Campbell is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Charlie Campbell: -21Tom Nolan: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricCharlie CampbellTom Nolan
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0201 059
ELO Change-21+21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.