October 30, 2020
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Charlie Ontiveros | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 977 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Kevin Holland's 8-fight experience advantage (9 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kevin Holland for the expected result. Had Charlie Ontiveros pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Charlie Ontiveros | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 984 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Charlie Ontiveros | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:39 | 2:39 |
| Win Type ELO | 981 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +33 |
Kevin Holland earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:39, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Charlie Ontiveros | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 12 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 2 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 975 | 1 325 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Kevin Holland controlled the striking exchanges with 33 vs 2 total strikes, 11 vs 2 significant strikes, 91.7% vs 100.0% accuracy. Kevin Holland capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Charlie Ontiveros | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 924 | 1 247 |
| ELO Change | -76 | +76 |
Kevin Holland dominated Charlie Ontiveros on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:13 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Charlie Ontiveros | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 43 |
| Activity ELO | 992 | 1 298 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +39 |
Kevin Holland demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 43 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Kevin Holland capitalized on this activity level, while Charlie Ontiveros's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Charlie Ontiveros | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +21 |
Kevin Holland extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Charlie Ontiveros is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Charlie Ontiveros | Kevin Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 984 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.