August 22, 2014
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chas Skelly | Tom Niinimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 016 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -34 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Chas Skelly | Tom Niinimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 001 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chas Skelly | Tom Niinimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:35 | 2:35 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 054 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -40 |
Chas Skelly earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:35, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Chas Skelly | Tom Niinimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 11 | 4 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 3 | 3 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 997 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Virtually no striking took place with only 3 total significant strikes exchanged. Both fighters immediately engaged in grappling, making striking analysis irrelevant to this fight.
| Metric | Chas Skelly | Tom Niinimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:15 | 0:56 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 019 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +71 | -71 |
Chas Skelly controlled Tom Niinimaki on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:15 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chas Skelly | Tom Niinimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 84 |
| Activity ELO | 1 024 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +45 | -22 |
Chas Skelly demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chas Skelly capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Niinimaki's 84-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chas Skelly | Tom Niinimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Chas Skelly started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Niinimaki is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chas Skelly | Tom Niinimaki |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 001 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.