October 23, 2009
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chase Gormley | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 969 | 1 038 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Stefan Struve's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Stefan Struve for the expected result. Had Chase Gormley pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chase Gormley | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chase Gormley | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:04 | 4:04 |
| Win Type ELO | 963 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +61 |
Stefan Struve earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:04, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Chase Gormley | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 23 | 16 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 32 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 945 | 953 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Stefan Struve edged the striking exchanges with 32 vs 10 total strikes, 75.0% vs 34.8% accuracy. Stefan Struve capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chase Gormley | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:29 | 1:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 936 | 1 064 |
| ELO Change | -64 | +64 |
Stefan Struve controlled Chase Gormley on the ground with 1 takedown, 1:07 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chase Gormley | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +38 |
Stefan Struve demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Stefan Struve capitalized on this activity level, while Chase Gormley's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chase Gormley | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Stefan Struve extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chase Gormley is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chase Gormley | Stefan Struve |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.