April 20, 2018
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chase Sherman | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 963 | 1 082 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +31 |
Justin Willis overcame a 3-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 6 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Chase Sherman.
| Metric | Chase Sherman | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 962 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chase Sherman | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 982 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Justin Willis earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chase Sherman | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 69 | 76 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 137 | 109 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 112 | 118 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 892 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Justin Willis controlled the striking exchanges with 76 vs 69 significant strikes, 69.7% vs 50.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Justin Willis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chase Sherman | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:02 | 3:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 17 |
| Ground ELO | 936 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -42 | +42 |
Justin Willis controlled Chase Sherman on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 3:00 of control time, 17 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chase Sherman | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 147 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 026 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +40 |
Justin Willis demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Justin Willis capitalized on this activity level, while Chase Sherman's 147-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chase Sherman | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 968 | 1 069 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +22 |
Justin Willis extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chase Sherman is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chase Sherman | Justin Willis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 962 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.