September 28, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Che Mills | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 079 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -28 |
Che Mills overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Duane Ludwig.
| Metric | Che Mills | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Che Mills | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:28 | 2:28 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 178 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | +86 | -38 |
Che Mills earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:28, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Che Mills | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 8 | 2 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 16 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 130 | 894 |
| ELO Change | +58 | -58 |
Che Mills slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 8 vs 2 significant strikes, 61.5% vs 20.0% accuracy. Che Mills capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Che Mills | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:05 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 070 | 892 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Che Mills controlled Duane Ludwig on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:05 of control time, 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Che Mills | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 045 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -22 |
Che Mills demonstrated solid activity levels with 161 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Che Mills capitalized on this activity level, while Duane Ludwig's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Che Mills | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 030 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -22 |
Che Mills started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Duane Ludwig is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Che Mills | Duane Ludwig |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

