April 20, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Che Mills | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 040 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Rory MacDonald's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rory MacDonald for the expected result. Had Che Mills pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Che Mills | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Che Mills | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:20 | 2:20 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 092 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +67 |
Rory MacDonald gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Che Mills | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 6 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 22 | 69 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 072 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | -126 | +126 |
Rory MacDonald dominated the striking exchanges with 75 vs 21 total strikes, 47 vs 6 significant strikes, 68.1% vs 27.3% accuracy. Rory MacDonald capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Che Mills | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:16 | 5:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 44 |
| Ground ELO | 1 013 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Rory MacDonald controlled Che Mills on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:51 of control time, 44 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Che Mills | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 259 |
| Activity ELO | 1 006 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Rory MacDonald demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rory MacDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Che Mills's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Che Mills | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 006 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Rory MacDonald extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Che Mills is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Che Mills | Rory MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

