Che Mills vs Rory MacDonald

April 20, 2012

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1029
(-38)
Che Mills
Winner: Rory MacDonald
KO/TKO
Round 2 • 2:20

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Che Mills-38
Rory MacDonald+44
1153
(+44)
Rory MacDonald

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Che Mills: -29Rory MacDonald: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricChe MillsRory MacDonald
Total UFC Fights25
Experience Gap-33
Experience ELO1 0401 129
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

Rory MacDonald's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rory MacDonald for the expected result. Had Che Mills pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Che Mills: -19Rory MacDonald: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricChe MillsRory MacDonald
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0031 066
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Che Mills: -33Rory MacDonald: +67

Performance Statistics

MetricChe MillsRory MacDonald
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round22
Time of Finish2:202:20
Win Type ELO1 0921 269
ELO Change-33+67
💡

What Happened

Rory MacDonald gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Che Mills: -126Rory MacDonald: +126

Performance Statistics

MetricChe MillsRory MacDonald
Significant Strikes Landed647
Significant Strikes Attempted2269
Total Strikes Landed2175
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 0721 223
ELO Change-126+126
💡

What Happened

Rory MacDonald dominated the striking exchanges with 75 vs 21 total strikes, 47 vs 6 significant strikes, 68.1% vs 27.3% accuracy. Rory MacDonald capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Che Mills: -43Rory MacDonald: +43

Performance Statistics

MetricChe MillsRory MacDonald
Takedowns Landed02
Takedowns Attempted02
Ground Control Time0:165:51
Ground Strikes Landed044
Ground ELO1 0131 262
ELO Change-43+43
💡

What Happened

Rory MacDonald controlled Che Mills on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 5:51 of control time, 44 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Che Mills: -16Rory MacDonald: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricChe MillsRory MacDonald
Days Since Last Fight168259
Activity ELO1 0061 121
ELO Change-16+20
💡

What Happened

Rory MacDonald demonstrated standard activity with 259 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Rory MacDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Che Mills's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Che Mills: -19Rory MacDonald: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricChe MillsRory MacDonald
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO1 0061 084
ELO Change-19+25
💡

What Happened

Rory MacDonald extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Che Mills is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Che Mills: -19Rory MacDonald: +19

Performance Statistics

MetricChe MillsRory MacDonald
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0031 066
ELO Change-19+19
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.