September 4, 2014
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 12 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 900 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +24 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (12 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 994 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -9 | +9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Rafael Natal receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 67 | 36 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 112 | 73 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 86 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 990 | 1 071 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
Chris Camozzi controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (86 vs 46 total strikes), significant strike advantage (67 vs 36), superior accuracy (59.8% vs 49.3%). However, since Chris Camozzi lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Rafael Natal's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:45 | 2:44 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 804 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | -8 | +8 |
Rafael Natal edged out Chris Camozzi on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 2:44 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 62 | 118 |
| Activity ELO | 1 063 | 1 136 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +53 |
Rafael Natal demonstrated solid activity levels with 118 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Natal capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Camozzi's 62-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 004 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Rafael Natal started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Camozzi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Rafael Natal |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.