August 7, 2015
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 931 | 928 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Chris Camozzi's 7-fight experience advantage (14 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Camozzi for the expected result. Had Tom Watson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 990 | 949 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 035 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Chris Camozzi earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 87 | 82 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 146 | 140 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 112 | 104 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 010 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Chris Camozzi slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 87 vs 82 significant strikes. Chris Camozzi capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:24 | 1:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 854 | 822 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -56 |
Chris Camozzi edged out Tom Watson on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 4:24 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 095 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +46 | -18 |
Chris Camozzi demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Camozzi capitalized on this activity level, while Tom Watson's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 012 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Chris Camozzi started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Tom Watson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Camozzi | Tom Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 990 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.