October 8, 2013
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Iliarde Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 058 | 910 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Chris Cariaso's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Cariaso for the expected result. Had Iliarde Santos pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Iliarde Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 029 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Iliarde Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:31 | 4:31 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 076 | 886 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -31 |
Chris Cariaso gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Iliarde Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 124 | 88 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 61 | 46 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 077 | 832 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Chris Cariaso controlled the striking exchanges with 54 vs 35 significant strikes. Chris Cariaso capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Iliarde Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 2:20 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 965 | 889 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Chris Cariaso did not secure a significant ground advantage against Iliarde Santos on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:43 of control time, 5 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Iliarde Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 144 | 67 |
| Activity ELO | 1 095 | 944 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -15 |
Chris Cariaso demonstrated solid activity levels with 144 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Cariaso capitalized on this activity level, while Iliarde Santos's 67-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Iliarde Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 041 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Chris Cariaso started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Iliarde Santos is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Iliarde Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 029 | 940 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.