July 10, 2012
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Josh Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 115 | 958 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Chris Cariaso's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Cariaso for the expected result. Had Josh Ferguson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Josh Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Josh Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 110 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Chris Cariaso earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Josh Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 70 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 104 | 65 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 114 | 33 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 097 | 902 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Chris Cariaso dominated the striking exchanges with 114 vs 33 total strikes, 70 vs 20 significant strikes, 67.3% vs 30.8% accuracy. Chris Cariaso capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Josh Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 6 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 4:18 | 3:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 096 | 876 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Chris Cariaso controlled Josh Ferguson on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 4:18 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Josh Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 137 | 221 |
| Activity ELO | 1 121 | 965 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -14 |
Chris Cariaso demonstrated solid activity levels with 137 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Cariaso capitalized on this activity level, while Josh Ferguson's 221-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Josh Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 071 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
Chris Cariaso extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Josh Ferguson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Josh Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 058 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.