May 9, 2014
Flyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 8 | -8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 115 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Chris Cariaso's 8-fight experience advantage (10 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Cariaso for the expected result. Had Louis Smolka pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 067 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 118 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Chris Cariaso receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 64 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 124 | 97 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 86 | 79 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 134 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Chris Cariaso controlled the striking exchanges with 64 vs 42 significant strikes, 51.6% vs 43.3% accuracy. Chris Cariaso capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:08 | 7:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 032 | 993 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Chris Cariaso edged out Louis Smolka on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 2:08 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 115 |
| Activity ELO | 1 169 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -15 |
Chris Cariaso demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Cariaso capitalized on this activity level, while Louis Smolka's 115-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 087 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -19 |
Chris Cariaso extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Louis Smolka is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Louis Smolka |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Flyweight | Flyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 067 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.