May 27, 2011
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 038 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +35 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 999 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 027 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Michael McDonald receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 44 | 32 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 67 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 55 | 37 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 999 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Chris Cariaso controlled the striking through superior volume (55 vs 37 total strikes), significant strike advantage (44 vs 32). However, since Chris Cariaso lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Michael McDonald's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:38 | 2:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 960 | 1 106 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Michael McDonald controlled Chris Cariaso on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:09 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 63 |
| Activity ELO | 999 | 1 084 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +63 |
Michael McDonald demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Michael McDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Cariaso's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 001 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Michael McDonald extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Cariaso is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Michael McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 999 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.