November 4, 2011
Bantamweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 066 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Chris Cariaso's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Cariaso for the expected result. Had Vaughan Lee pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 020 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 037 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Chris Cariaso receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 52 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 89 | 56 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 79 | 101 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 028 | 971 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Chris Cariaso controlled the striking exchanges with 79 vs 101 total strikes, 52 vs 29 significant strikes. Chris Cariaso capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 9 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:21 | 5:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 14 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 023 | 937 |
| ELO Change | +63 | -63 |
Chris Cariaso controlled Vaughan Lee on the ground with 2 takedowns, 6:21 of control time, 14 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 036 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -21 |
Chris Cariaso demonstrated solid activity levels with 162 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Cariaso capitalized on this activity level, while Vaughan Lee's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 024 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Chris Cariaso started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Vaughan Lee is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Cariaso | Vaughan Lee |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Bantamweight | Bantamweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 020 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.