February 3, 2012
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Cope | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 927 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Matt Brown's 8-fight experience advantage (11 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Brown for the expected result. Had Chris Cope pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Cope | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Cope | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:19 | 1:19 |
| Win Type ELO | 966 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +60 |
Matt Brown gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cope | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 82 | 71 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 802 | 1 158 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Matt Brown controlled the striking exchanges with 48 vs 24 total strikes, 48 vs 20 significant strikes, 67.6% vs 24.4% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matt Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Cope | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:10 | 1:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 882 | 899 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Matt Brown landed 1 knockdown followed by 4 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Chris Cope | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 91 | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 982 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +52 |
Matt Brown demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Matt Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Cope's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Cope | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +23 |
Matt Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Cope is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Cope | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.