April 7, 2023
Middleweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Curtis | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 21 |
| Experience Gap | -15 | 15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 145 | 1 232 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Kelvin Gastelum's 15-fight experience advantage (21 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kelvin Gastelum for the expected result. Had Chris Curtis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Curtis | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 049 | 1 096 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Curtis | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 281 | 1 422 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +33 |
Kelvin Gastelum earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chris Curtis | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 70 | 83 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 201 | 188 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 80 | 88 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 256 | 1 285 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
Kelvin Gastelum edged the striking exchanges with 83 vs 70 significant strikes, 44.1% vs 34.8% accuracy. Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Curtis | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:01 | 1:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Ground ELO | 1 168 | 1 252 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Kelvin Gastelum controlled Chris Curtis on the ground with 1:21 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Curtis | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 595 |
| Activity ELO | 1 245 | 1 273 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +20 |
Kelvin Gastelum demonstrated extended layoff with 595 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Curtis's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Curtis | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 072 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Kelvin Gastelum started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Curtis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Curtis | Kelvin Gastelum |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 048 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

