Chris Curtis vs Kelvin Gastelum

April 7, 2023

Middleweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1158
(-29)
Chris Curtis
Winner: Kelvin Gastelum
Decision - Unanimous
Round 3 • 5:00

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Chris Curtis-29
Kelvin Gastelum+29
1225
(+29)
Kelvin Gastelum

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Curtis: -29Kelvin Gastelum: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricChris CurtisKelvin Gastelum
Total UFC Fights621
Experience Gap-1515
Experience ELO1 1451 232
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum's 15-fight experience advantage (21 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Kelvin Gastelum for the expected result. Had Chris Curtis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Curtis: -21Kelvin Gastelum: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricChris CurtisKelvin Gastelum
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0491 096
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Curtis: -33Kelvin Gastelum: +33

Performance Statistics

MetricChris CurtisKelvin Gastelum
Fight OutcomeDecision - UnanimousDecision - Unanimous
Last Round33
Time of Finish5:005:00
Win Type ELO1 2811 422
ELO Change-33+33
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Curtis: -26Kelvin Gastelum: +26

Performance Statistics

MetricChris CurtisKelvin Gastelum
Significant Strikes Landed7083
Significant Strikes Attempted201188
Total Strikes Landed8088
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 2561 285
ELO Change-26+26
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum edged the striking exchanges with 83 vs 70 significant strikes, 44.1% vs 34.8% accuracy. Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Curtis: -62Kelvin Gastelum: +62

Performance Statistics

MetricChris CurtisKelvin Gastelum
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted03
Ground Control Time0:011:21
Ground Strikes Landed04
Ground ELO1 1681 252
ELO Change-62+62
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum controlled Chris Curtis on the ground with 1:21 of control time, 4 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Curtis: -22Kelvin Gastelum: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricChris CurtisKelvin Gastelum
Days Since Last Fight119595
Activity ELO1 2451 273
ELO Change-22+20
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum demonstrated extended layoff with 595 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Kelvin Gastelum capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Curtis's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Curtis: -18Kelvin Gastelum: +20

Performance Statistics

MetricChris CurtisKelvin Gastelum
Win Streak01
Win Streak ELO1 0721 154
ELO Change-18+20
💡

What Happened

Kelvin Gastelum started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Curtis is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Curtis: -22Kelvin Gastelum: +22

Performance Statistics

MetricChris CurtisKelvin Gastelum
Weight ClassMiddleweightMiddleweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0481 083
ELO Change-22+22
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.