December 17, 2021
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Daukaus | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | -18 | 18 |
| Experience ELO | 1 152 | 1 319 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Derrick Lewis's 18-fight experience advantage (23 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derrick Lewis for the expected result. Had Chris Daukaus pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Daukaus | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 069 | 1 193 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Daukaus | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:36 | 3:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 380 | 1 643 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +43 |
Derrick Lewis earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:36, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Chris Daukaus | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 14 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 19 | 28 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 14 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 295 | 1 494 |
| ELO Change | -87 | +87 |
Derrick Lewis controlled the striking exchanges, including 1 devastating knockdown. Derrick Lewis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Daukaus | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 203 | 1 339 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
The fight remained exclusively on the feet with zero ground action, resulting in neutral ground scoring for both fighters.
| Metric | Chris Daukaus | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 85 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 187 | 1 406 |
| ELO Change | -11 | +21 |
Derrick Lewis demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Daukaus's 85-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Daukaus | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 095 | 1 262 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +14 |
Derrick Lewis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Daukaus is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Daukaus | Derrick Lewis |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 068 | 1 191 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.