Chris Duncan vs Jordan Vucenic

March 22, 2025

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1098
(+38)
Chris Duncan
Winner: Chris Duncan
Submission
Round 2 • 3:42

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Chris Duncan+38
Jordan Vucenic-35
937
(-35)
Jordan Vucenic

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Duncan: +19Jordan Vucenic: -19

Performance Statistics

MetricChris DuncanJordan Vucenic
Total UFC Fights52
Experience Gap3-3
Experience ELO1 132947
ELO Change+19-19
💡

What Happened

Chris Duncan's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Duncan for the expected result. Had Jordan Vucenic pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Duncan: +17Jordan Vucenic: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricChris DuncanJordan Vucenic
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 059961
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Duncan: +39Jordan Vucenic: -25

Performance Statistics

MetricChris DuncanJordan Vucenic
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round22
Time of Finish3:423:42
Win Type ELO1 139929
ELO Change+39-25
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What Happened

Chris Duncan earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:42, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jordan Vucenic was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Duncan: +42Jordan Vucenic: -42

Performance Statistics

MetricChris DuncanJordan Vucenic
Significant Strikes Landed1516
Significant Strikes Attempted4026
Total Strikes Landed2422
Knockdowns Scored10
Striking ELO1 092933
ELO Change+42-42
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What Happened

Chris Duncan controlled the striking exchanges with 37.5% vs 61.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Chris Duncan capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Duncan: +127Jordan Vucenic: -127

Performance Statistics

MetricChris DuncanJordan Vucenic
Takedowns Landed41
Takedowns Attempted52
Ground Control Time5:370:12
Ground Strikes Landed62
Ground ELO1 139840
ELO Change+127-127
💡

What Happened

Chris Duncan dominated Jordan Vucenic on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 5:37 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Duncan: +28Jordan Vucenic: -16

Performance Statistics

MetricChris DuncanJordan Vucenic
Days Since Last Fight175232
Activity ELO1 095962
ELO Change+28-16
💡

What Happened

Chris Duncan demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Duncan capitalized on this activity level, while Jordan Vucenic's 232-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Duncan: +20Jordan Vucenic: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricChris DuncanJordan Vucenic
Win Streak20
Win Streak ELO1 070961
ELO Change+20-17
💡

What Happened

Chris Duncan extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jordan Vucenic is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Duncan: +17Jordan Vucenic: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricChris DuncanJordan Vucenic
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 059961
ELO Change+17-17
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.