March 22, 2025
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Jordan Vucenic |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 947 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Chris Duncan's 3-fight experience advantage (5 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Duncan for the expected result. Had Jordan Vucenic pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Jordan Vucenic |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Jordan Vucenic |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:42 | 3:42 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 139 | 929 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -25 |
Chris Duncan earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:42, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Jordan Vucenic was submitted.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Jordan Vucenic |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 16 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 40 | 26 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 22 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 092 | 933 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Chris Duncan controlled the striking exchanges with 37.5% vs 61.5% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Chris Duncan capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Jordan Vucenic |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:37 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 139 | 840 |
| ELO Change | +127 | -127 |
Chris Duncan dominated Jordan Vucenic on the ground with 4 vs 1 takedowns, 5:37 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Jordan Vucenic |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | 232 |
| Activity ELO | 1 095 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -16 |
Chris Duncan demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Duncan capitalized on this activity level, while Jordan Vucenic's 232-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Jordan Vucenic |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 070 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -17 |
Chris Duncan extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jordan Vucenic is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Jordan Vucenic |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 961 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

