February 23, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Manuel Torres |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 088 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +33 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Manuel Torres |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Manuel Torres |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:46 | 1:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 036 | 1 236 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +53 |
Manuel Torres earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:46, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Manuel Torres |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 029 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Manuel Torres slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 60.0% vs 50.0% accuracy. Manuel Torres capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Manuel Torres |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 0:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 962 | 1 213 |
| ELO Change | -145 | +145 |
Manuel Torres dominated Chris Duncan on the ground with 2 vs 1 takedowns, 0:42 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Manuel Torres |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 218 | 253 |
| Activity ELO | 1 042 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +28 |
Manuel Torres demonstrated standard activity with 253 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Manuel Torres capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Duncan's 218-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Manuel Torres |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 027 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +28 |
Manuel Torres extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Duncan is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Manuel Torres |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.