March 17, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Omar Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 084 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +84 | -84 |
Chris Duncan overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 7 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Omar Morales.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Omar Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Omar Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 011 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Chris Duncan receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Omar Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 53 | 47 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 83 | 80 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 53 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 018 | 884 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Chris Duncan slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 53 vs 47 significant strikes. Chris Duncan capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Omar Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 14 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 6:31 | 0:02 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 7 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 073 | 851 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -73 |
Chris Duncan dominated Omar Morales on the ground with 5 vs 0 takedowns, 6:31 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Omar Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 302 |
| Activity ELO | 1 023 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Chris Duncan demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Chris Duncan capitalized on this activity level, while Omar Morales's 302-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Omar Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 023 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Chris Duncan started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Omar Morales is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Omar Morales |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.