July 21, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Yanal Ashmouz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 110 | 1 004 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -17 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Yanal Ashmouz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 042 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Yanal Ashmouz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 064 | 1 048 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Chris Duncan earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Yanal Ashmouz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 85 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 206 | 98 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 87 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 075 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -57 |
Chris Duncan dominated the striking exchanges with 87 vs 36 total strikes, 85 vs 35 significant strikes. Chris Duncan capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Yanal Ashmouz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:48 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 107 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -34 |
Chris Duncan edged out Yanal Ashmouz on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 0:48 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Yanal Ashmouz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 065 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -21 |
Chris Duncan demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Duncan capitalized on this activity level, while Yanal Ashmouz's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Yanal Ashmouz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 048 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -21 |
Chris Duncan extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Yanal Ashmouz is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Duncan | Yanal Ashmouz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 042 | 1 000 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.