July 30, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Gruetzemacher | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 072 | 950 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Chris Gruetzemacher's 4-fight experience advantage (6 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Gruetzemacher for the expected result. Had Rafa Garcia pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Gruetzemacher | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 007 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Gruetzemacher | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 122 | 948 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Chris Gruetzemacher earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chris Gruetzemacher | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 100 | 72 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 190 | 146 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 176 | 90 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 001 | 941 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Chris Gruetzemacher dominated the striking exchanges with 176 vs 90 total strikes, 100 vs 72 significant strikes. Chris Gruetzemacher capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Gruetzemacher | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 12 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 6:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 941 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Chris Gruetzemacher did not secure a significant ground advantage against Rafa Garcia on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Chris Gruetzemacher | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 273 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 1 066 | 966 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Chris Gruetzemacher demonstrated standard activity with 273 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Chris Gruetzemacher capitalized on this activity level, while Rafa Garcia's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Gruetzemacher | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 017 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Chris Gruetzemacher started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rafa Garcia is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Gruetzemacher | Rafa Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 007 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.