April 26, 2025
Featherweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Gutierrez | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 232 | 1 075 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Chris Gutierrez's 6-fight experience advantage (14 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Gutierrez for the expected result. Had John Castaneda pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Gutierrez | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 129 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Gutierrez | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 326 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | +5 | -5 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Chris Gutierrez receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Chris Gutierrez | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 46 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 85 | 77 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 65 | 76 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 362 | 1 051 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Chris Gutierrez controlled the striking exchanges with 46 vs 41 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Chris Gutierrez capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Gutierrez | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:39 | 4:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 107 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Chris Gutierrez landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Chris Gutierrez | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 260 | 323 |
| Activity ELO | 1 216 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -13 |
Chris Gutierrez demonstrated standard activity with 260 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Chris Gutierrez capitalized on this activity level, while John Castaneda's 323-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Gutierrez | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 164 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -15 |
Chris Gutierrez extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. John Castaneda is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Gutierrez | John Castaneda |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 125 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.