August 28, 2009
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 996 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +63 |
Jake Rosholt overcame a 11-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 13 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Chris Leben.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 026 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:30 | 1:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 186 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -70 | +105 |
Jake Rosholt earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:30, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Chris Leben was submitted.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 14 | 21 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 43 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 77 | 38 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 191 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -43 | +43 |
Chris Leben controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (77 vs 38 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (14 vs 21), superior accuracy (32.6% vs 50.0%). However, since Chris Leben lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jake Rosholt's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:29 | 2:24 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 916 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -154 | +154 |
Jake Rosholt dominated Chris Leben on the ground with 3 vs 1 takedowns, 2:24 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 315 | 203 |
| Activity ELO | 1 174 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +41 |
Jake Rosholt demonstrated standard activity with 203 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jake Rosholt capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Leben's 315-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 052 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +29 |
Jake Rosholt started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Leben is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jake Rosholt |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 026 | 1 007 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.