December 29, 2006
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 030 | 1 105 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +44 |
Jason MacDonald overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (2 vs 8 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Chris Leben.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 059 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:03 | 4:03 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 177 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +95 |
Jason MacDonald earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 4:03, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Chris Leben was submitted.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 15 | 9 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 34 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 52 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 079 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Chris Leben controlled the striking through superior volume (52 vs 35 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (15 vs 9), superior accuracy (44.1% vs 33.3%). However, since Chris Leben lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Jason MacDonald's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:48 | 4:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 091 | 1 142 |
| ELO Change | -91 | +91 |
Jason MacDonald controlled Chris Leben on the ground with 1 takedown, 4:47 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 136 | 82 |
| Activity ELO | 1 206 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +98 |
Jason MacDonald demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 82 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Jason MacDonald capitalized on this activity level, while Chris Leben's 136-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 085 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +32 |
Jason MacDonald extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Chris Leben is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Jason MacDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 059 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.