September 18, 2007
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Leben | Terry Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 5 | -5 |
| Experience ELO | 1 031 | 999 |
| ELO Change | +35 | -35 |
Chris Leben's 5-fight experience advantage (10 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Leben for the expected result. Had Terry Martin pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Terry Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 053 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Terry Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 3:56 | 3:56 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 231 | 1 186 |
| ELO Change | +113 | -56 |
Chris Leben gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Terry Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 53 | 45 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 101 | 104 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 208 | 76 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 175 | 1 011 |
| ELO Change | +123 | -123 |
Chris Leben dominated the striking exchanges with 208 vs 76 total strikes, 53 vs 45 significant strikes, 52.5% vs 43.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Chris Leben capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Terry Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:27 | 6:59 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 046 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -25 |
Chris Leben landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Terry Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 116 | 116 |
| Activity ELO | 1 208 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +34 | -14 |
Chris Leben demonstrated solid activity levels with 116 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Leben capitalized on this activity level, while Terry Martin's 116-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Terry Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 079 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -18 |
Chris Leben started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Terry Martin is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Leben | Terry Martin |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 053 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.