Chris Lytle vs Dan Hardy

August 13, 2011

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1124
(+31)
Chris Lytle
Winner: Chris Lytle
Submission
Round 3 • 4:16

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Chris Lytle+31
Dan Hardy-28
1046
(-28)
Dan Hardy

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: +43Dan Hardy: -43

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleDan Hardy
Total UFC Fights208
Experience Gap12-12
Experience ELO1 0211 073
ELO Change+43-43
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What Happened

Chris Lytle's 12-fight experience advantage (20 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Lytle for the expected result. Had Dan Hardy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: +21Dan Hardy: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleDan Hardy
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 0581 020
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: +41Dan Hardy: -28

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleDan Hardy
Fight OutcomeSubmissionSubmission
Last Round33
Time of Finish4:164:16
Win Type ELO1 3001 107
ELO Change+41-28
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What Happened

Chris Lytle earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:16, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Dan Hardy was submitted.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: +32Dan Hardy: -32

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleDan Hardy
Significant Strikes Landed12761
Significant Strikes Attempted271238
Total Strikes Landed13463
Knockdowns Scored00
Striking ELO1 1611 015
ELO Change+32-32
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What Happened

Chris Lytle dominated the striking exchanges with 134 vs 63 total strikes, 127 vs 61 significant strikes, 46.9% vs 25.6% accuracy. Chris Lytle capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: +41Dan Hardy: -41

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleDan Hardy
Takedowns Landed01
Takedowns Attempted02
Ground Control Time0:200:07
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 075977
ELO Change+41-41
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What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: +29Dan Hardy: -17

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleDan Hardy
Days Since Last Fight169141
Activity ELO1 2371 120
ELO Change+29-17
💡

What Happened

Chris Lytle demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Lytle capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Hardy's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: +23Dan Hardy: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleDan Hardy
Win Streak10
Win Streak ELO1 0901 045
ELO Change+23-21
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What Happened

Chris Lytle started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Hardy is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Chris Lytle: +21Dan Hardy: -21

Performance Statistics

MetricChris LytleDan Hardy
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 0521 014
ELO Change+21-21
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.