August 13, 2011
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | 12 | -12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 021 | 1 073 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Chris Lytle's 12-fight experience advantage (20 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Lytle for the expected result. Had Dan Hardy pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 058 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:16 | 4:16 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 300 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -28 |
Chris Lytle earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 4:16, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Dan Hardy was submitted.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 127 | 61 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 271 | 238 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 134 | 63 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 161 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Chris Lytle dominated the striking exchanges with 134 vs 63 total strikes, 127 vs 61 significant strikes, 46.9% vs 25.6% accuracy. Chris Lytle capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:20 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 075 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -41 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 169 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 1 237 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -17 |
Chris Lytle demonstrated solid activity levels with 169 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Lytle capitalized on this activity level, while Dan Hardy's 141-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 090 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Chris Lytle started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dan Hardy is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Dan Hardy |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 052 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

