July 6, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 954 | 930 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Chris Lytle's 7-fight experience advantage (9 vs 2 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Lytle for the expected result. Had Jason Gilliam pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 964 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:15 | 2:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 048 | 916 |
| ELO Change | +68 | -39 |
Chris Lytle earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 3 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 8 | 7 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 972 | 851 |
| ELO Change | +54 | -54 |
Chris Lytle controlled the striking exchanges with 39 vs 5 total strikes, 62.5% vs 42.9% accuracy. Chris Lytle capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:57 | 0:05 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 012 | 751 |
| ELO Change | +111 | -111 |
Chris Lytle dominated Jason Gilliam on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:57 of control time, 2 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 021 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -21 |
Chris Lytle demonstrated solid activity levels with 126 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Lytle capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Gilliam's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 971 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Chris Lytle started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Gilliam is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Jason Gilliam |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 960 | 954 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.