June 19, 2009
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 013 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Chris Lytle's 11-fight experience advantage (15 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Chris Lytle for the expected result. Had Kevin Burns pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 994 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 181 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +42 | -42 |
Chris Lytle earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 101 | 69 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 247 | 195 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 108 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 152 | 974 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
Chris Lytle controlled the striking exchanges with 108 vs 75 total strikes, 101 vs 69 significant strikes. Chris Lytle capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:14 | 0:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 091 | 945 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Chris Lytle did not secure a significant ground advantage against Kevin Burns on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 133 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -21 |
Chris Lytle demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Chris Lytle capitalized on this activity level, while Kevin Burns's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 011 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -23 |
Chris Lytle started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kevin Burns is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Chris Lytle | Kevin Burns |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 990 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.